What’s Your Marathon Pace?
Forecasting a realistic marathon pace ahead of time can be the difference between a strong finish and a tough final few miles. This article shows how to pick a goal pace based on real data — not wishful thinking.
Use Pacing Charts to Turn Goal Time into Mile/km Targets
Pacing charts for different marathon goal times
You can track each mile (or km) during the race against these charts to stay on pace — and even use them to estimate intermediate goals like half-marathon time, 10 km or 5 km splits.
How to Choose a Realistic Marathon Pace
Before committing to a goal pace, consider:
Recent race or training data — base your goal on proven performance (e.g. recent race times, threshold runs, fitness tests), not what you hope to achieve.
Course and conditions — if your marathon has hills, wind, heat or other challenges, adjust expectations accordingly (pace charts assume relatively “normal” conditions).
Your readiness and consistency — a marathon is a long race, so consistent training and realistic preparation matter more than aiming for an aggressive time just to hit a chart.
Why “Just Guessing a Pace” Rarely Works
Pacing based on wishful thinking tends to lead runners out too fast — most “burn out” in the final miles.
Using a chart or data-based target encourages even pacing: this tends to lead to better race outcomes, stronger finishes, and more satisfying results.
What to Do Before Race Day
Download the chart that matches your realistic goal time
Convert the pace-per-mile (or km) into splits that suit your watch/pace device
Use recent fitness or race data as your baseline — don’t pick a time just because it’s attractive
On race day, stay disciplined — aim to keep consistent pace rather than start fast and fade
Copyright MyProCoach™ Ltd © Feb 2020. All rights reserved.
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